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Cost parity and conversion to electric


This is the Sigmoid or Logistic Curve. It describes capped expontially growing things, like cancer or the takeup of new technologies.

So, yes, electric cars are in a way like Cancer. :-)

The point being that right now a lot of people are waiting for electric cars to take really off. Right now, they are in the low single digit numbers of the total car population, but when a certain breaking point is being reached, that will change very extremely quickly.

Many people think this breaking point is cost parity, electric cars costing approximately as little or much as a comparable car with ICE. And some people are bullish and think that year might even be 2018.

The thing being that, in order to satisfy sudden demand, you need to have building capacity and enough experience to have the processes down and ready for mass manufacture.

Well, maybe it’s not 2018, but 2020. In any case, time is running out for makers of cars with ICE.

Published inPost Car Society


  1. Talking to a friend who has an electric car he can charge in his garage (and loving it in general) his only comment if it’s feasible to own one if you’re living in an apartment building with random street parking can be summed up as “lol”.

    So while I really love the idea and don’t have many concerns regarding reach, or even the higher initial cost of getting one, this is my number one “I have absolutely no clue how this should work out for me and like 50% of my direct neighbors” .

    We do have a private parking lot at our complex (with monthly fees) so I guess if you have a space there and there’s enough demand, then we might convince the owners to install/let us install power outlets to the single parking spaces, but it’s only ~20 spaces for 40 apartments, and some of the other buildings nearby don’t even have that.

  2. dzp

    Well, apart from Kia, all producers of eCars I know of have not understood concepts like Datensparsamkeit and use their customers’ data as an extra revenue stream. Of course, only to optimize that shiney new e-technology. Ha, ha, ha.

    As long as that situation prevails, cost parity is not an issue for many ppl.

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